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北京小赛车开奖直播:Kaishi Fund: The market has entered the stage bottom

时间:2018/7/13 20:08:55  作者:  来源:  浏览:0  评论:0
内容摘要: The recent sharp adjustment in the stock market has caused some investors to panic. In the deleveraging environment, the market's worries a...

The recent sharp adjustment in the stock market has caused some investors to panic. In the deleveraging environment, the market's worries about the economic downturn continue to deepen, and the market is filled with pessimistic sentiments. I hope to share my views and thoughts in the following aspects.

As far as the current A-share market environment is concerned, corporate earnings are not bad and valuations are low. It is almost a consensus, but in the market adjustment in the past month, investors have chosen to “turn a blind eye” to these good factors. Recalling the situation several times the market downturn, corporate profits remain high but the market is down the stage, and both are liquidity dramatic deterioration occurred, leading to the market ahead of the expected earnings reflect peaked. Stage at the bottom

Throughout the history of the A-share market is mostly due to policy tightening, such as the 2013 control shadow banking risk, continue to strengthen financial supervision; risk of devaluation fears after US rate hike in 2016, at a time fuse mechanisms appear and enlarge the market's pessimism.

At present, the bottom of the feature stages of the market has emerged: first, the big adjustment from market highs fell nearly 50%, from the bull market on time 3 - 4 years. Second, industry valuations are already at historically low levels, with weak market transactions and depressed moods. Third, the suppression of the market situation changes, currently in the de-leveraging of rhythm and monetary policy have been marginal changes. Therefore, we have reason to judge that the market has entered the bottom area.

First of all, in the sectors and industries that are in line with the development of the times, we can select outstanding stocks with sustained growth. Looking into the future, economic development is expected to move towards technological innovation and service consumption. We believe that the quality targets in A-shares are also expected to be born in these two directions.

Secondly, in the medium and long term, the performance of outstanding stocks depends more on the quality and performance of the company. In the face of the growth of long-term performance, the valuation fluctuations are much smaller. A study of the past three decades reveals that the best performing stocks in each decade have changed a lot, and industry and company quality are fundamental to ensuring long-term sustained growth. The vast space and relatively stable industry attributes make it easier to provide a continuously growing soil that has contributed the most quality targets over the past two decades.

In this time window of economic transformation to new kinetic energy, I believe that the cultivation of new industries and the transformation of traditional industries should be the main direction of investment. Specifically, the structured consumption upgrade field represented by biotechnology, medicine, education, etc. will have stable cash flow and ROE for a long time in the future, and the industry moat is higher. With the emerging high-end manufacturing industry represented by semiconductors, new materials and new energy sources, the import substitution space is large, and the industry growth has great potential. Finally, the intelligent information industry represented by big data, cloud computing and artificial intelligence will inevitably carry out comprehensive and in-depth information transformation of the current traditional industries.


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